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Why Collectible Cars Shouldn’t Be Considered an Alternative Investment

40Are you a financial advisor counseling clients on collectible car investments? Investors have been noticing the collectible car market. And for good reason – it’s grown spectacularly. Though the end of 2015, the rare collectible automotive market was up more than 500% for the decade, according to figures from the Historic Automobile Group International (HAGI) which tracks vintage collectibles through a number of indexes. By comparison, the S&P 500 only went up about 64% in the decade. But recent activity seems to show the classic car market leveling off and that such investments correlate to the overall market.

The Numbers

A series of classic car auctions held each January around Scottsdale, Ariz., showed flat prices for top-end collectibles. Total sales through Jan. 30 stood at $242 million, down more than 10% compared to last year’s auctions. The average sale price was $104,000 this year, compared to nearly $120,000 in 2015, according to figures from Hagerty, the well-known classic car insurance and pricing company. (For more, see: Investing in Collectible Cars: Top Tips and Risks.)

So, are we experiencing a bubble in classic car prices, and if so, might that bubble be about to burst?

“To me, it indeed looks like a bubble in many segments of the market,” said David Bentson, a principal at Precision Automotive Group, which advises on buying, selling, and maintaining classic automobiles. “We are seeing highly inflated prices in the market for air-cooled Porsches and Ferraris, for instance.”

Indeed, some rarer models from those brands have sold for truly staggering prices. For instance, the Ferrari 250 race car from the early 1960s has sold for more than $38 million. Bentson explained that demand has outgrown supply in the classic car market. “Collecting used to be the domain of car guys,” he said. “In recent years, however, people are getting involved with the market purely as an investment.” (For more, see: see: 5 Tips for Vintage Car Collecting.)

This extra demand from non-enthusiasts is driving up prices, Bentson said, but will also exacerbate an eventual price fall. “If you have a collectible car you love, you probably aren’t going to sell it even if you see its financial value dropping. But those who collect cars solely as investments are much more likely to quickly dump them if the market falls.” Bentson noted that he expected prices to fall in parts of the collector car market in the coming months. “This market is cyclical, but it’s not tied to the stock market or even the value of other collectibles,” he said.

If the collectible car market is due for a correction, there’s no telling how severe it might be. “We have certainly experienced a boom over the last decade but the years with the strongest growth seem to be behind us,” said Dietrich Hatlapa, founder of HAGI. He noted that his main index, the HAFI Top Index grew more than 45% in 2013, but in the two years since growth declined to about 16% annually. (For more, see: The Best Sports Cars for Investors.)

Investors must understand that just as real estate prices can go up most years, but still suffer periodic corrections, so too does the collectible car market face corrections. “Nothing goes up forever and all the time,” Hatlapa said. “It is absolutely possible that prices will come down, especially in some sections of the market. You just have to look at other collectors’ markets where we have seen significant corrections since the financial crisis in 2008.”

The experts warn that corrections can happen quickly, especially when macroeconomic factors influence investor behavior. Hatlapa noted that in the second and third quarter of 2009, in the wake of the financial crisis, his firm’s index for classic Ferraris corrected by more than 15%. What sectors within the classic car market seem most secure against substantial loss? “Quality and rarity are the main factors offering protecting during periods of market weakness,” Hatlapa said. He said that cars with a known and interesting history (such as race cars) tend to hold their value better than most, as do those in top condition retaining all original components. (For more, see: 3 Alternative Investments the Ultra-Rich Usually Own.)

Investing in cars is not for the meek or cash-strapped. Beyond the initial purchase price, there’s also restoration costs to consider, as well as outlays for ongoing maintenance, storage and insurance. These costs add up, even at the low end of the market.

Currently, an investor can buy a decent 1990 Mercedes-Benz 500SL for about $10,000. That’s not so much. But that fine piece of German engineering is now 26 years old. A replacement inner door panel insert can run more than $300, without labor costs. If the removable hard top is damaged, a replacement could cost another $1,400. The SL also comes with a soft top, and endless other parts that might need to be sourced and replaced.

The Bottom Line

If you’re advising an investor on the collectible car market, the best advice may simply buy what they love. Collecting what one personally enjoys is safer than collecting solely for investment purposes. After all, collectible cars can be subject to the vicissitudes of the market just as stocks, real estate or other asset classes are. Owning a classic provides social recognition and owners can get personal value by driving the car, or even just looking at it. They can also reap networking benefits by socializing with other enthusiasts at car shows and events. A car that excited someone as a teenager will still excite them as an adult and that’s worth something. (For more, see: The Risk of Investing in Art and Collectibles.

Cars to Buy Now

39 Speculation has never been the best reason to buy a collector car. More often than not, the buyer loses money on a car that he or she didn’t want in the first place.

On the other hand, there’s no shame in buying something that you love, enjoying it for a few years, then making some change and trading up to something else that you love. And while there’s no such thing as a sure thing, here are five that are a good bet to appreciate significantly in the next five years:

  • 2001 Panoz Esperante – If a Dodge Viper is a bit too much of a blunt instrument for you, might we suggest a Panoz Esperante. A race-bred, all-American sports car from Georgia, its well-engineered suspension and generous use of aluminum (plus a Ford modular V8) make it an ideal track day weapon that you won’t see in every paddock. Only its looks, forgettable from the rear and bulbous from the front, detract. The car remains in low production, but if this changes, it’s not unreasonable to think that the Esperante is a good appreciation bet. Asking prices start at around $26,000.
  • 1992-95 Dodge Viper RT/10 – And if it isn’t too much of a blunt instrument… Fat tires, 400+ horsepower, minimal weather protection (including flimsy side curtains and a toupée for a top) and side exhausts that sound like all of hell hound Cerberus’s heads belching in unison. It can only be a million dollar 427 Cobra, right? Not so fast, the first-gen Dodge Viper RT/10 checks all those boxes and it’s silly cheap at the moment. Early Vipers with some miles have asking prices of about $25,000, which means you can probably still snag one in the low twenties if you’re lucky. That’s cheaper than a mediocre Cobra replica. Fifty to sixty thousand dollars for one of these in five years doesn’t seem remotely unreasonable.
  • 1992-97 Ferrari 456 GT – Ferrari is done with the clutch pedal and while those shopping for new Ferraris don’t seem to miss it, manual transmission Ferraris from the ‘90s and the aughts are hot at the moment in the collector market. Witness the meteoric rise of the 550 Maranello among others. The 456 GT has been somewhat overlooked. The autobox 456 GTA cars with transmissions that can cost over $25,000 to repair have been stuck in the forties and fifties for some time, but the manual trans GTs are about $25,000 to $35,000 more and probably climbing. Only about 1,500 were built making them almost as rare as Daytonas.
  • 2008-09 Honda S2000CR – As affordable roadsters from the aughts go, the S2000 is far more entertaining than anything other than a BMW Z3 M roadster, maybe. And unless you like your torque and horsepower to be of the Jeffrey “the Dude” Lebowski lazy variety, it’s incredibly satisfying to drive with peak horsepower of around 240 coming at a remarkable 8,300 rpms. The CR or Club Racer was a rare North America-only variant with fewer comfort features and lower weight. Fewer than 700 were built over two model years and most have been put to their intended use and tracked to death. Surviving gently used examples are blue chip Japanese collectibles. They’re about $25,000 now. Anyone who thinks that fifty is silly hasn’t watched Acura NSX prices lately.
  • 1982-91 Pontiac Trans Am – Of all the cars on the list, this one may come closest to a sure thing. We’ve all seen the Smokey and the Bandit-era 1976-77 Trans Ams go northbound over the last few years. In 2007, when Hagerty Price Guide publisher Dave Kinney decided to do the Bandit Run and write about it for the New York Times, he had his pick of good cars in the seven-to-ten thousand dollar range. Now those cars are in the $30-$50,000 range. Well guess what, the kids who couldn’t get enough of the show “Knight Rider” are now coming into some bucks and guess what they’re going to want? For the time being, these are about ten grand. Is double that unreasonable in five years? We think not.

‘Passion investing’ in classic cars is gaining speed

38So-called passion investing — allocating wealth toward high-value collectibles — has been around for about 10 years and is now expanding into the classic car arena.

Classic cars are gaining attention due to their nearly 500 percent returns over the past decade, outpacing art and wine by more than 100 percent, as reported by the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index.

“Passion funds,” mostly known for investments in art portfolios, have been around since about 2006, with classic car passion funds coming on the scene about five years ago, said Enrique Liberman, partner, Bowles Liberman & Newman.

Liberman is a transactional attorney who specializes in luxury asset investment funds. “Ten years ago, classic cars were looked at as collectibles, but now people are recognizing them as an asset class,” he said.

He has been seeing a lot of interest in new car funds lately, with many inquiries coming from first-time fund managers, typically classic car collectors or dealers.

Clarifying the term “fund,” Liberman explained that “a fund has a person or group that comes up with a structure and terms and offers it, whereas an investment collective is when a group of people come together and decide collectively on the [investment] terms.”

Under the radar

Generally, car funds keep a very low profile, Liberman said, raising funds through their own connections and registered broker-dealers.

“When you have a fund, you need to be very careful of what can and cannot be said,” he explained, referring to regulatory restrictions. “You can’t solicit on a website.”

Another reason for staying under the radar is to not alert the marketplace.

“Dealers will want top dollar if you advertise what you have in your collections, and buyers prefer to buy from other collectors, not investors or funds,” he said.

Fund investment approaches vary widely, Liberman said. Strategies include a focus on make, such as Ferrari, or on restoration or geographic arbitrage (buying in certain countries and selling elsewhere for a higher price).

The Rolling Art Fund 1, by Rolling Art Advisors, is a private equity fund, now fundraising for $50 million to $100 million, focused on limited-production classic sports cars. It is only for accredited investors.

“In my decades of doing this, I’ve never seen collector cars recognized so universally as alternate assets and works of art.” -Steve Linden, co-founder and fund manager at Chrome Strategies Investments

“A few years ago, we noticed the growth in demand and interest in [investing in] art,” said co-founder Joshua Wekstein, an attorney with a longstanding interest in historic sports cars. “We view these cars as art, and we want to have museum-quality pieces in our portfolio.”

Rolling Art Advisors co-founder Marc Sharinn is an attorney with investment funds experience who collects classic sports cars. To establish proof of concept, the founders started a test portfolio of five cars in 2013. Their strategy is to choose cars of limited production (under 500 units), with engineering, mechanical and/or historical significance; a handmade craftsman component; and provenance (documented history).

In less than three years, the overall value has increased more than 100 percent, Wekstein said.

Another private placement fund now in fundraising is Chrome Strategies Investments, managed by Chrome Strategies Management. Co-founder and fund manager Steve Linden is a well-known vintage auto appraiser, broker and author who has specialized in the classic car market for 30 years.

His fund’s strategy is to look at specific auto nuances and attributes that other collectors and investors are overlooking.

“I’ve seen trends come and go, and we don’t want to focus on one particular marque,” he said.

Why now?

“In my decades of doing this, I’ve never seen collector cars recognized so universally as alternate assets and works of art,” Linden said, explaining why the time is right for this type of investment vehicle. “We are seeing record prices set at major auctions and a record-setting run-up in values, with cars going to every imaginable point across the globe.”

In the last three to five years, the volume of global purchases and shipments has exploded, he said, driven by new investors, as opposed to casual collectors.

“I’m getting a lot of inquiries from investors, and I saw a need to offer and develop a diversified portfolio product,” Linden added. “I often tell people, ‘If you think you can invest in one car, that’s gambling. It’s like buying just one stock.'”